According to a report jointly released by the World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman, the climate crisis will cause 14.5 million additional deaths and $12.5 trillion in economic losses by 2050, and cost the global health care system an additional $1.1 trillion.
Rising temperatures and extreme weather events will continue to worsen infectious diseases, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and other health problems, with vulnerable populations disproportionately affected.The report recommends that we take action to strengthen the capacity of global health care systems to respond to climate change, including prevention and rapid resilience.
Extreme weather events could become one of the biggest global risks over the next decade. According to a new report by the World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman, this will have a major impact on global health.
Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Human Health analyses the direct and indirect effects of climate events such as floods, droughts, heat waves, tropical storms, wildfires and sea level rise on human health.
The report predicts that by 2050, the climate crisis will result in 14.5 million additional deaths and $12.5 trillion in economic losses, and cost the global health care system an additional $1.1 trillion.
The report highlights that rising temperatures and extreme weather events will lead to continued worsening of infectious, cardiovascular, respiratory and other diseases.
Climate change may lead to a series of climatic events that affect human health. Image: World Economic Forum Here are the three climate risks that have the greatest impact on human health.
Three climate hazards that pose the greatest threat to human health.
1. Floods and extreme rainfall cause the greatest loss of life
Flooding is the climate hazard with the highest risk of death. The report predicts that floods could kill as many as 8.5 million people by 2050.
As sea temperatures rise, more water evaporates, polar ice caps melt at an accelerated pace, rainfall totals increase, and the water table rises. Sea level rise has also made coastal areas particularly vulnerable to flooding, with tidal flooding now 10 times more frequent than 50 years ago.
Flooding not only causes physical damage, but also affects the mental health of victims. Image: World Economic Forum
Floods not only cause death and injury, they also leave a stagnant pool of water in the aftermath, accelerating the spread of water-borne and insect-borne diseases (diseases carried by organisms, such as malaria). Damage to infrastructure and crop destruction can lead to food insecurity and malnutrition. In addition, the destruction of homes and loss of livelihoods can seriously affect people’s mental health.
According to global projections, equatorial South America, central Africa and coastal areas of Southeast Asia are likely to be most affected by flooding by 2050.
2. Drought is spreading
Drought refers to a prolonged period of little or no rainfall and is the second most deadly climate disaster. By 2050, drought is expected to kill up to 3.2 million people.
We may associate drought with areas like Africa – 40 million people in Africa are affected by drought, but it has gradually spread to other temperate regions of the world. Nearly 40 percent of the contiguous United States and 20 percent of the population of Europe are threatened by drought.
Drought has long-term effects on people and the planet. Image: World Economic Forum
Problems such as reduced water quality, reduced water availability and soil degradation are direct consequences of drought. These problems can lead to elevated dust concentrations, which can trigger more respiratory illnesses. They also affect food security, personal and environmental hygiene, can lead to malnutrition and accelerate the spread of infectious diseases. In addition to the health effects, drought can also cause mental health problems and threaten people’s livelihoods.
Areas at high risk for future drought include the western United States, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean region, and southwestern Africa. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Drought Information System, many of these areas are already facing reduced rainfall and lower water tables.
3. Heat waves pose a threat to the economy
A heatwave is a prolonged period of unusually humid heat. The report found that heat waves have the greatest economic impact, with economic losses expected to reach $7.1 trillion by 2050. These losses are mainly the result of reduced productivity.
Heatwaves not only damage human health, but also have the greatest economic impact of all climate disasters. Image: World Economic Forum
Heat waves spread across the globe, affecting the body’s cooling system. Prolonged high temperatures can lead to a variety of health problems, including heat stroke and electrolyte imbalance. Some of these problems can be life threatening, with the extra burden on the body leading to a heart attack or stroke, especially in vulnerable populations. Poor people are particularly affected, such as those in places with limited access to fresh water and air conditioning.
From an economic point of view, heat waves can greatly affect occupational health and productivity, especially in occupations that are more vulnerable to heat waves, such as farmers or construction workers.
By 2050, heat waves are expected to cause nearly 1.6 million deaths, mostly in the highest-risk regions of the United States, Central America, southern and western Africa, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, and northern Australia. With increasing levels of urbanization, heat exposure in these areas could increase 12 to 38 times. This is because city buildings, roads, sidewalks and other facilities absorb heat and then release it to a stronger degree than is natural.
Building climate-resilient health systems
Health systems in many countries are already facing a heavy burden. In this context, the climate crisis affects human health and creates additional challenges for the global health system.
According to the World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman, we need to focus on two points in particular to build climate-resilient global health systems: preventing or reducing the impacts of climate change on human health, and enhancing the ability to recover quickly after climate events.
Achieving this goal will require the collaboration of all parties, including governments, policymakers, the life sciences industry, and the health care sector. More importantly, governments and industry must do their utmost to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to prevent a vicious cycle, the report said.